Week after week, the 7 day average of Active COVID cases in NH had been decreasing to levels unseen since last March. Until yesterday. What does this recent uptick mean for the big picture?

nurse holds a swab for the coronavirus / covid19 test
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 30 New Active COVID Cases For June 29th

For those of you following the weekday updates like a hawk, you know that this number is a bit troubling.

My rule of thumb computation on the daily active number (which is quite possibly inaccurate as I am a horrible at mathematics) is to multiply it by ten to get an estimate on what the total active cases will be if this rate of infection keeps pace.

If the next few days see 30 new daily cases, it is possible that NH's daily active could double back into the 300 range. This is something that I completely stopped worrying about weeks ago.

When the stats are compiled and reported on Monday, it has been common to see at least two of those days with new daily cases in the single figures.

As the calendar turns to July, the stretch of time leading up to the date of July 26th will be interesting to follow at covid19.nh.gov

The low point of new cases between the onset last March, and the minimal transmission era of this month, occurred in that last week of July 2020.

On Sunday July 26th of last year, there were only 7 new active cases detected.

I was holding out hope that in a few weeks, the numbers would correspond following the path of last Summer and New Hampshire would almost reached zero infections.

Alas, that remains to be seen. Hopefully, yesterday was just a blip. It brought about only a 1% increase after all.

Maybe tonight's new active daily number will look more like what we've seen over the last month.

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